Pursuing the desire for cattle or attacking the followers of heresy: A numerical analysis of different factors influencing strategies adopted in large group interactions involving nomads or holy war
Citation:
Morris, Chris John, Pursuing the desire for cattle or attacking the followers of heresy: A numerical analysis of different factors influencing strategies adopted in large group interactions involving nomads or holy war, Trinity College Dublin, School of Histories & Humanities, History, 2023Download Item:
Abstract:
This thesis is a numerical analysis of factors which have influenced the strategies
adopted in a sample of 120 large group interactions involving nomads or holy war in
the period 1250 BCE to 1850 CE in parts of Afro-Eurasia. In the first two chapters, it
establishes a basis for the limits of time and space applied to the sample, and places
them in their wider context, as well as addressing issues of methodology arising
from the use of a quantitative approach. It then draws on material from a range of
disciplines to define and exemplify nomadism and holy war, before exploring a
range of factors likely to be relevant to the strategies employed. These include
matters pertaining to climate, agriculture, population and power, government,
culture, religion, economics, warfare, and leadership. The broad pattern of events in
each of the regions of the study is outlined, providing a context for the individual
cases used in the sample. Issues of model-building are examined, and the database
used for analysis, as developed in light of the prior analysis of factors, is presented.
Initial analysis shows that the sample interactions are linked to periods of high
activity of the El Ni?o Southern Ocean (ENSO) anomaly. They illustrate the already
established pattern of climatically and culturally disadvantaged but militarily strong
initiators against advantaged but militarily weaker respondent. Use of cavalry by the
initiators is linked to the bioproductivity of their area. The assessments of
Manoeuvre and Morale, rather than Material, are the main predictors of their level
of advantage. Stepwise regression analysis of the database, supported by stability
testing through analysis of random subsamples and bootstrapping, leads to the
conclusion that initiator strategy and the outcome can be strongly explained (57%
and 75% of variance, respectively) by the variables examined. In aggregate, the
climate and geography variables; Holy War; other culture, economic and diplomacy
variables and military variables are all of fairly similar significance in explaining the
characteristics of the interactions. Analysis of a secondary database suggests that
the model may be orientated towards nomad initiators with more aggressive
policies which are more rapidly brought to a conclusion.
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https://tcdlocalportal.tcd.ie/pls/EnterApex/f?p=800:71:0::::P71_USERNAME:CJMORRISDescription:
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Author: Morris, Chris John
Advisor:
Holm, PoulPublisher:
Trinity College Dublin. School of Histories & Humanities. Discipline of HistoryType of material:
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