Ireland in 2040: Urbanization, demographics and housing

Abstract

Ireland during the 20th century was a demographic outlier, rather than an economic one. With a swingtowards population growth, rather than away from it, during the 21st century, this outlier status will persist. However, in relation to population growth and demographics, Ireland is more likely to be delayed rather than different. Two key aspects in which Ireland is likely to converge with its peers over coming decades are urbanization and average household size. The relative lack of urbanization is a symptom of housing market mismatch, rather than – as previously – a reflection of different employment structures. There is, further, little evidence that Dublin’s population share is too large, given the country’s size. In addition, the recent modest increase in household size is a function of housing supply, not demand. Housing output has not adjusted to reflect the growth of 1-2 person households, meaning that Ireland is missing roughly half a million apartments.