Predicting total global species richness using rates of species description and estimates of taxonomic effort
File Type:
PDFItem Type:
Journal ArticleDate:
2012Access:
OpenAccessCitation:
Mark Costello, Simon P. Wilson and Brett Houlding, Predicting total global species richness using rates of species description and estimates of taxonomic effort, Systematic Biology, 61, 5, 2012, 871 - 883Download Item:
Syst Biol-2012-Costello-871-83.pdf (Published (publisher's copy) - Peer Reviewed) 289.3Kb
Abstract:
We found that trends in the rate of description of 580,000 marine and terrestrial species, in the taxonomically
authoritative World Register of Marine Species and Catalogue of Life databases, were similar until the 1950s. Since then,
the relative number of marine to terrestrial species described per year has increased, reflecting the less explored nature
of the oceans. From the mid-19th century, the cumulative number of species described has been linear, with the highest
number of species described in the decade of 1900, and fewer species described and fewer authors active during the World
Wars. There were more authors describing species since the 1960s, indicating greater taxonomic effort. There were fewer
species described per author since the 1920s, suggesting it has become more difficult to discover new species. There was no
evidence of any change in individual effort by taxonomists. Using a nonhomogeneous renewal process model we predicted
that 24?31% to 21?29% more marine and terrestrial species remain to be discovered, respectively. We discuss why we
consider that marine species comprise only 16% of all species on Earth although the oceans contain a greater phylogenetic
diversity than occurs on land. We predict that there may be 1.8?2.0 million species on Earth, of which about 0.3 million are
marine, significantly less than some previous estimates.
Sponsor
Grant Number
Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)
08-IN.1-I1879
Author's Homepage:
http://people.tcd.ie/swilsonhttp://people.tcd.ie/houldinb
Description:
PUBLISHED
Author: WILSON, SIMON; HOULDING, BRETT
Type of material:
Journal ArticleCollections:
Series/Report no:
Systematic Biology61
5
Availability:
Full text availableKeywords:
Biodiversity; biogeography; deep-sea modeling; macroecology; marine; taxonomy; terrestrial.Subject (TCD):
Neuroscience , Smart & Sustainable PlanetDOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syr080Licences: