The Exit Option: How ethnopolitical exclusion influences emigration desire from sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

To what extent and in what ways does politicized ethnicity drive migration desire in sub-Saharan Africa? This question matters because migration from Africa has received much attention in the media and by policy makers, but limited attention in the literature. The current migration literature does not directly address this question because most migrants from Africa are considered economic migrants, and political explanations are limited to involuntary migrants, in part because of a voluntary/involuntary migration binary that segments the migration literature. In order to better understand migration from this region, I bring the literature on politicized ethnicity to bear on migration to explore two potential ways in which exclusion might matter: through its effects on material factors by shaping access to economic opportunity and development goods; and through its effects on immaterial factors through its effects on grievance. In the first chapter I verify that the overarching argument presented in the dissertation - that ethnopolitical exclusion matters for emigration desire - is indeed plausibly relevant to the primary outcome variable of interest, emigration desire. In the second chapter I test more precisely the mechanisms by which ethnopolitical exclusion possibly matters for emigration desire by conducting a survey framing experiment during an election campaign in Kenya. Elections provide a convenient frame to ask questions about emigration desire that are related to ethnopolitical exclusion and the material consequences of election loss. I find that material drivers matter for emigration desire when an individual belongs to a group that is historically excluded from central power. In the final chapter, I turn to immaterial drivers related to ethnopolitical exclusion and test how ethnic grievance predicts levels of emigration desire. In the more robust sub-national models, I find support for a direct effect of ethnic grievance as the strongest, statistically significant predictor of emigration desire, and while the effect is weaker in the cross-national Afrobarometer sample, it remains positive and significant. Overall, this dissertation contributes to our understanding of how micro-political factors matter for emigration desire for individuals from sub-Saharan Africa. It also demonstrates that in countries that exclude along ethnic lines, ethnic grievances generated over time could influence emigration desire in ways that have not been previously connected to what is typically labeled as voluntary emigration.