Applied Joint Probabilistic Modeling of Compound Coastal Flood Hazard: An Extension of the Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling
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Nathan Geldner, David Johnson, Gabriele Villlarini, Brendan Yuill, Angshuman Saharia, Shan Zou, Lauren Grimley, Nathan Young, Myles McManus, Hugh Roberts, Shubhra Misra, Applied Joint Probabilistic Modeling of Compound Coastal Flood Hazard: An Extension of the Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling, 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14), Dublin, Ireland, 2023.Download Item:
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Compound coastal flooding i.e. coastal flooding driven by storm surge, rainfall, and riverine dynamics poses a significant and complex hazard. We present a novel framework for statistical modeling of this hazard as applied in a preliminary pilot study in Louisiana. This framework extends the Joint Probability Modeling with Optimal Sampling (JPM-OS), previously used for purely surge and wave driven flooding, with a stochastic rainfall field generator to produce an empirical distribution of compound surge-rainfall events with pre-computed surge and wave behavior modeled via ADCIRC + SWAN and hydrologic behavior modeled via HEC-HMS. A clustering-based discretization scheme is then applied to the sampling distribution in order to reduce set of outcomes to a size which can be tractably simulated via HEC-RAS while minimizing the square error induced by discretization. While model improvements are ongoing, the clustering-based discretization scheme is highly generalizable, provides guaranteed convergence to local optima, and performs well in preliminary analysis.
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Author: Villlarini, Gabriele; Misra, Shubhra; Roberts, Hugh; ICASP14; McManus, Myles; Young, Nathan; Geldner, Nathan; Grimley, Lauren; Zou, Shan; Saharia, Angshuman; Johnson, David; Yuill, Brendan
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