A Climate Change Impact Assessment of the Irish Road Drainage System
File Type:
PDFItem Type:
Conference PaperDate:
2023Access:
openAccessCitation:
Wang, Jingyu, O’Brien, Enda, Holloway, Paul, Ryan, Páraic, A Climate Change Impact Assessment of the Irish Road Drainage System, 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14), Dublin, Ireland, 2023.Download Item:
submission_45.pdf (PDF) 611.3Kb
Abstract:
As climate change becomes an increasingly pressing issue, Ireland is expected to experience a rise in infrastructure failures caused by flooding. This puts significant stress on the country's drainage system, which is designed to efficiently channel rainfall. To address this issue, it is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the Irish road drainage system and adjust strategies accordingly. This study focuses on the effect of intensive rainfall events on the drainage system, using a typical system consisting of pipes, manholes and an attenuation pond as a case study. A probabilistic model is developed to simulate system performance using Monte Carlo simulation, and intensive rainfall events are derived under various climate scenarios. (i.e. historical scenario for 1976-2005, and future emissions scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2071-2100). The performance of the system is analyzed using the SWMM software as a basis for the probabilistic assessment under various climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change will increase system inflow and lead to more severe flooding. Model variability will influence the occurrence probability of system flooding. The impact of intensive rainfall was found to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 or the historical one, and pipes and the pond showed different levels of resilience under the design allowance of 20%.
Description:
PUBLISHEDOther Titles:
14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering(ICASP14)Type of material:
Conference PaperCollections:
Series/Report no:
14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering(ICASP14)Availability:
Full text availableLicences: