Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data
Citation:
Joseph Kopecky, Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data, Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 74, 2023, 1-20Download Item:
AgingSecularStagnation_FinalPublishedVersion.pdf (PDF) 1.215Mb
Abstract:
A large literature has reopened the secular stagnation hypothesis, first proposed near the end of the great depression as a warning for anemic growth resulting from long run trends in population aging. In this paper, I explore the relationship between population age structure and growth in: investment, consumption and output, in a long run panel of advanced economies. The evidence is largely consistent with proposed channels for secular stagnation. Investment growth, in its level and as a fraction of GDP, appears much stronger in young populations, while facing demographic headwinds in older economies. Consumption and output growth are positively associated with late career workers, with a negative relationship coming from both young and old dependents. Consistent with the recent secular stagnation literature, interest rate channels appear to have strong interactions with population age structures. I find that for investment and output growth, estimated impacts of age-structure are more pronounced in low interest rate environments, with high rates mitigating some of their effect.
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http://people.tcd.ie/jkopeckyDescription:
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Author: Kopecky, Joseph
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Journal of the Economics of Ageing;74;
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Ageing , ECONOMIC HISTORY , demographic change , secular stagnationDOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100442Licences: