Devaluation Irish pound European Monetary System Exchange rates
Economic & Social Research Institute
Walshe, Don; O'Donnell, Mary. 'Devaluation expectations and fundamentals: some new evidence for Ireland 1979-1994'. - Economic & Social Review, Vol. 32, No. 1, January, 2001, pp. 23-41, Dublin: Economic & Social Research Institute
This paper uses a Probit model to link economic fundamentals with devaluation
expectations for the Irish pound over the period 1979-1994. The estimates relate to both the probability as well as the size of an expected devaluation. The model performs well in predicting the size and timing of actual realignments and estimates of devaluation expectations are consistent with previous estimates based on UIP. While the Maastricht Treaty stipulated the need for exchange rate stability prior to joining EMU, the results here show that economic variables other than those referenced in the Maastricht Treaty can lead to exchange rate instability.
Please note: There is a known bug in some browsers that causes an
error when a user tries to view large pdf file within the browser window.
If you receive the message "The file is damaged and could not be
repaired", please try one of the solutions linked below based on the
browser you are using.
Items in TARA are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.