Party loyalty at referenda and general elections: evidence from recent Irish contests

Abstract

The paper explores the extent of voter loyalty to party at different kinds of electoral contest. Voter transition matrices are computed using an estimation technique based on a quadratic programming algorithm. The data come from recent referenda, General and Presidential Elections in the Republic of Ireland and some strong patterns are evident in the results. A large group of voters consistently abstains and loyalty to party seems higher at General Elections than at referenda or Presidential contests.