Aspects of intercommunity population balance in Northern Ireland

Abstract

The population of Northern Ireland is probably unique in that it is composed of two groups of people each of which can be characterized as a 'minority'. Conventional wisdom has it that at present there is a dominant Protestant majority wishing to maintain political links with Great Britain, and a Catholic minority desirous of closer links with, i f not absorption by, the Irish Republic. The seeming paradox of two minorities is explained, on the one hand, by the existence of the current Catholic minority; and, on the other, by a Protestant group, in the majority at present, fearing that in time it will become a minority. As the recent Commission on Disturbances in Northern Ireland said '. . . among Protestants there are deep-rooted suspicions and fears of political and economic domination by a future Catholic majority in the population'. This fear is partly caused by the knowledge that the average size of Catholic families is significantly larger than average non-Catholic families. Out of this situation has sprung rumour and counter-rumour concerning the precise current population balance between the two communities.