Affluence, Spatial Spillovers, and Inequality in Household Energy Transitions: Exploring the Determinants of Sustainable Technology Adoption in Ireland

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial and socioeconomic determinants of household adoption of sustainable technologies in Ireland—specifically heat pumps (HP), solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, electric vehicles (EV), and EV home chargers (EVHC). Using a Spatial Seemingly Unrelated Regression Generalised Nested Model (SPSUR-GNM) at the electoral division (ED) level, we analyse 2804 EDs combining socioeconomic, housing, transport, and demographic data. Results show that a one-point increase in the Deprivation Index (less deprived areas) is associated with 1.2–2.9% higher adoption across all technologies, while a 1-percentage-point rise in management professionals increases uptake by 0.8% for PV, 1.6% for EV, and 2.5% for EVHC. In contrast, higher fossil-fuel dependence sharply reduces HP uptake (−4.6% for oil, −7.0% for wood heating). Spatial spillovers are substantial: for example, EV adoption in one ED induces an additional 2.6% increase in neighbouring areas. These results confirm that adoption is strongly concentrated in affluent, owner-occupied, and professionally employed communities. Current “pay-then-reimburse” grant schemes and limited public infrastructure disproportionately benefit higher-income households, reinforcing equity gaps. The study recommends upfront, means-tested subsidies and geographically targeted outreach to promote a more inclusive energy transition.