Assessing the impact of mobility on the incidence of COVID-19 in Dublin City

Abstract

COVID-19 has had a major impact on the transport systems around the world. Several transport-related policies were implemented in short period of time to contain the spread of the pandemic. These policies had a major influence on travel behavior and people's perception towards the safety of different modes of transport, especially public transport, thus affecting several sustainable mobility initiatives. To build a resilient and sustainable transport system and to rebuild trust in public transport, it is important to understand the role of mobility in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. The present study investigates the relationship between mobility and reported COVID-19 infections using data from Dublin city. Different modes of transport including traffic volume, bus passengers, pedestrians and cyclists were considered in the study during a forty week period. Multiple scenarios involving two-week lag and three-week lag of mobility data and COVID-19 infections were considered in building statistical models. Results showed that, 36.2% of the reported COVID-19 infections after a two-week lag and 33% of the infections after a three-week lag. Our research examines the links between movements and COVID-19 numbers, but clearly this was not the only reason for increased case numbers as many other events impacted on increased numbers. The study further discusses the policy implications and strategies for ensuring a resilient and sustainable transport system.