Elections and macroeconomic outcomes in Ireland, 1948-91

Abstract

This paper tests the main politico-economic theories of the relationships between elections and macroeconomic outcomes using Irish data over the period 1948-91. The results suggest that Fianna Fail governments have been more expansionary than Fine Gael-led alternatives, that is they have been more concerned with output and unemployment rather than inflation. It is also tentatively suggested that lower unemployment acts as a signal for the incumbent to call an election. It is also found that minority governments tend to be more shortlived than majorities.