Impact of lower preference votes on Irish parliamentary elections, 1922-1977

Abstract

This paper examines the electoral impact of the counting and transfer of lower preference votes on Dail elections since 1922. The relationship between transfers and constituency size is assessed, and it is shown that a constituency size of at least five members is needed before transfers have an even chance of affecting the final result. Only Fine Gael has benefited significantly in net terms from transfers, while both Fianna Fail and Independents have lost. On only one occasion has the number of seats changing hands as a result of transfers been so great as to significantly affect the relative strengths of the various parties in the Dail.