Short-term forecasting - review of recent experience

Abstract

Since September 1968 The Economic and Social Research Institute has published detailed forecasts on a quarterly basis of Gross National Product and its components in both value and volume terms. It is hoped in tins paper that by examining relationships between forecasts and the outcomes, one may be able to get some insights into the adequacy of forecasting methods employed in this country. We will also attempt to take cognisance of qualitative statements contained in the various publications containing forecasts.