The 2024 Presidential Election in the US: Potential Impacts on Global Politics and Economics

Abstract

The 2024 US presidential election will determine who will work with Congress to address three major fiscal issues: the expiration of key tax reforms from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the ongoing trade war with China, and the trajectory of the federal debt Vice President Kamala Harris supports increasing taxes on high earners and corporations while substantially increasing redistribution through the tax code. Her proposals, including raising the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, would shrink the economy by an estimated 1.6 percent and fall short of raising the revenue necessary to cover increased spending Former President Donald Trump seeks to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, reduce the corporate tax rate further, and implement higher tariffs. While his tax policies could boost growth, his aggressive tariff strategy would harm the economy and fall short of paying for the tax cuts Rather than addressing the projected debt burden, which is unprecedented and unsustainable, both candidates’ plans are likely to worsen the US debt trajectory and create a drag on economic growth