Population growth Population projection Data collection
Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland
Dignan, Tony. 'Exploring population projections: sources of uncertainty and the user perspective'. - Dublin: Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, Vol.38, 2008/09, pp.143-177
Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland Vol.38, 2008/09
Government population projections are typically underpinned by a set of assumptions based on what has happened in the past, informed by expert opinion on what the future holds. The assumptions made are inevitably subject to uncertainty e.g. trends may change unexpectedly. This seminar considers sources of uncertainty in recent population projections for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, both national and sub-national. Past experience with population projections is examined to illustrate the effects of changing trends and economic circumstances. The seminar then looks at sources of uncertainty in the most recent 2006-based projections. The concluding remarks discuss the management of uncertainty.
Please note: There is a known bug in some browsers that causes an
error when a user tries to view large pdf file within the browser window.
If you receive the message "The file is damaged and could not be
repaired", please try one of the solutions linked below based on the
browser you are using.
Items in TARA are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.