The purposes of this research project is to investigate the holdings of the Fagel Collection given its origins as a working information resource for a high-level (Greffier) official of the States-General. To this effect the library contains many works relating to scientific, mathematical, geographic and political knowledge. The primary concern of this investigation will be to look at the development of the science of probability and statistics, in particular, the analysis of actuarial risk and political risk. The aim is to come to a better understanding of how states and their key advisers interpreted not only risk but also uncertainty. Understanding these policy tools and how they evolved over time will allow a deeper understanding of how modern risk assessment instruments were created as well as what informed the policy evaluation processes used by the Fagels and other such elites.

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