Short-term economic forecasting

Abstract

The main purpose of short-term economic forecasting is to try to assess prospective economic conditions as a guide to the policy required to maintain economic activity at the liighest sustainable level. The period of the forecast is usually one of nine to twelve months, i.e. to the end of the calendar or fiscal year ahead. This distinguishes it from the type of forecasting, or more properly programming, in which targets or aims covering a period of years are set... Short-term forecasting provides a framework in. which all the ascertamable facts and predictions m connection with future trends are assembled. In the absence of knowledge of what is happening in the economy and without an informed view of its likely performance in the months ahead, government policy cannot be intelligently formulated to further the economic objectives considered necessary.