Designing Equitable and Dynamic Rapid Earthquake Loss Assessment Systems

Abstract

After the occurrence of destructive seismic events, there is an urgent need for reliable and rapid information regarding the expected impact in terms of damage, economic losses, fatalities, and injuries. Systems for the rapid estimation of earthquake impact can be a fundamental tool in disaster risk management. However, despite the rise in the availability of low-cost sensors and recent advancements in machine learning technology, the design of near-real time loss assessment systems still follows traditional approaches, which ignores the spatial distribution of earthquake risk, and results in frameworks that tend to neglect the least vulnerable communities. In this study, considering the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), we investigated how ground motion sensors should be spatially distributed to minimize costs, while maximizing accuracy and reliability. To determine the optimal location of the system of sensors, we considered different risk metrics to capture the needs of distinct stakeholders. These include economic losses, number of damaged buildings per occupancy type, and number of people injured according to their socio-economic characteristics. These results can support the design of future systems, or the improvement of existing frameworks.