Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic, global modelling of future tropical cyclone risk

Abstract

Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, growing economies, evolving societies, and declining ecosystems. Here we apply a new feature of the CLIMADA climate risk modelling platform, which allows carrying out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We showcase the comprehensive treatment of uncertainty and sensitivity of CLIMADAﾒs outputs for the assessment of future global tropical cyclone (TC) risk. Our results show that socio-economic development contributes more strongly to TC risk increase in the future and is a more uncertain risk driver than climate change. Besides, we find that exposure scaling based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) is the input variable with the most significant impact on TC risk change calculations. In conclusion, we argue that a thorough and systematic assessment of future global TC risk will help focus forthcoming research efforts and enable better-informed adaptation decisions and mitigation strategies.