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  Explaining and predicting the adoption, timing and location of terrorism in civil conflicts 

  Oswald, Christian

  This thesis examines the adoption, timing and location of terrorism in civil conflicts. It analyzes the effect of territorial advances on the timing and location of state-based and one-sided violence, the effect of battlefield ...
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  Choose Your Target Wisely: How the EU Shapes Nationalism in Contemporary Europe 

  Johnston, Samuel Alexander (Trinity College Dublin. School of Social Sciences & Philosophy. Discipline of Political Science, 2022)

  Nationalism has experienced a resurgence across Europe since 1980, and one common explanation for this resurgence is that the backlash to European integration aids radical right parties, which prioritise nativism in the ...
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  The effect of terrorist attacks on attitudes and its duration 

  Chadefaux, Thomas (2022)

  Is terrorism effective as a tool of political influence? In particular, do terrorists succeed in affecting their targets’ attitudes, and how long does the effect last? Existing research unfortunately is either limited to ...
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  A shape-based approach to conflict forecasting 

  Chadefaux, Thomas (2021)

  Do conflict processes exhibit repeating patterns over time? And if so, can we exploit the recurring shapes and structures of the time series to forecast the evolution of conflict? Theory has long focused on the sequence ...
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  Public and Private Information in International Crises: Diplomatic Correspondence and Conflict Anticipation 

  Boussalis, Constantine; Chadefaux, Thomas; Decadri, Silvia (2022)

  Scholars of international conflicts have long emphasized the role of private information in the onset of interstate wars. Yet, the literature lacks direct and systematic evidence of its effect. This is largely due to ...

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