Modelling aggregate supply for a medium-term macroeconometric model
Citation:Bradley, John and Fanning, Connell. 'Symposium on Econometric Modelling - Modelling aggregate supply for a medium-term macroeconometric model'. - Dublin: Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland,Vol. XXIV, Part IV, 1981/1982, pp85-106
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As the survey of model building in Ireland (Fanning and Bradley, 1982) identified most of the Irish macromodels are short-term in nature. One model, COMET ? 1976 (Barten et al., 1976), was an important attempt to build a medium-term model, but a number of models had features which make them to varying degrees, suitable for medium-term analysis. The concern of this paper is with the design of such a policy analysis model. In short-term modelling a fairly ad hoc methodological approach is often acceptable since inconsistencies or systematic divergencies from underlying trends are less important in the short-term. However, medium-term modelling brings into play the entire model structure in a more fundamental way and systematic changes in behaviour lie at the very heart of the analysis. To illustrate this we examine, in the next subsection, one of the larger models of the Irish economy from a medium-term perspective.
Description:Read before the Society, 25 February 1982
Other Titles:Symposium on Econometric Modelling
Publisher:Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland
Type of material:Journal article
Series/Report no:Journal of The Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland
Vol. XXIV, Part IV, 1981/1982
Availability:Full text available
Keywords:Econometric modelling, Aggregate supply, Macroeconometric modelling, Medium term macroeconometric models
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