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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64870

Title:	Devaluation expectations for the IR£/DM in the EMS: some empirical estimates and their relation to fundamentals
Author:	O'Donnell, Mary
Keywords:	European Monetary System Devaluation Irish punt Deutschmark
Issue Date:	1995
Publisher:	Economic & Social Research Institute
Citation:	O'Donnell, Mary. 'Devaluation expectations for the IR£/DM in the EMS: some empirical estimates and their relation to fundamentals'. - Economic & Social Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, January, 1995, pp. 173-189, Dublin: Economic & Social Research Institute
Abstract:	This paper presents results for devaluation expectations for the IR£/DM for the period of EMS membership. The methodology employed produces estimates of expected rates of devaluation by adjusting the interest rate differential by the expected rate of depreciation within the band. These estimates are then related to economic fundamentals. Expected rates of devaluation are found to be positively correlated with the IR£/Stg exchange rate and marginally related to unemployment, the level of reserves and the balance of payments surplus.
URI:	http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64870
ISSN:	00129984
Appears in Collections:	Economic and Social Review Archive: Complete Collection 1969- The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, January, 1995

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