Conservatives, liberals and pragmatists: disaggregating the results of the Irish abortion referendums of 1992

Abstract

This paper examines the results of three referendums on abortion which were held in November 1992 relating to Travel, Information and the Substantive Issue. By solving a set of simultaneous equations, it shows that the No vote on the Substantive Issue can be disaggregated so as to estimate the magnitudes of the conservative and liberal votes. It appears that the bulk of voters fall into three groups of almost equal size — about 30 per cent are classified as conservatives (voting No on all three issues), about the same proportion as liberals (Yes to Travel and Information and No on the Substantive Issue) and a slightly smaller proportion as pragmatists (Yes on all three issues). A measure of the proportion voting No for liberal reasons is derived which shows substantial regional variations. This measure is also shown to have a high negative correlation with the Fianna Fáil share of the vote in each constituency.