Share extrapolation Cohort component model Population forecasts
Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland
Morgenroth, Edgar. 'Evaluating methods for short to medium term county population forecasting'. - Dublin: Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland,Vol. XXXI, 2001/2002, pp110-145
Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland Vol. XXXI 2001/2002
Public services provision and land use planning are crucially dependent on
accurate population forecasts. Despite their importance, particularly for planning at the
local level, population forecasts for Irish counties are not readily available. A number
of different methods could be used to calculate such forecasts, but it is not clear which
of these possible methods produces the most accurate forecasts. This paper assesses the
data requirements and methodology involved in the implementation of the various
techniques, and evaluates the forecasting performance of a number of different
methods in terms of the forecast error associated with each method over the period
1991 to 1996. The results of this paper show that simple share extrapolation techniques
perform well compared with the more elaborate cohort component model that is widely
used for national projections.
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