Bradley, John. 'Symposium on the economic implications of peace in Ireland'. - Dublin: Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland,Vol. XXVII, 1994/1995, pp145-170
Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland Vol. XXVII 1994/1995
In our paper, we will first set the scene for the post cease-fire economic possibilities
by briefly examining what we refer to as the "lost" years since the start of open
conflict in the North in 1969. Although economists of nationalist and unionist
hues are likely to interpret the historical North-South socio-economic record with
differing degrees of emphasis, nevertheless the facts tend to speak for themselves in
a relatively uncontroversial way and point generally to the desirability of more
imaginative policy experimentation in both parts of Ireland.
We then attempt to address more controversial matters and explore three
interrelated possible post cease-fire scenarios of peace, that differ in their
assumptions concerning North-South economic policy interactions and
North-South institutions. The first is the case of peaceful but separate development,
or the economic status quo ante. The second is the case of North-South
co-ordinated development, where limited forms of political/economic co-operation
are put in place. Finally, we attempt to conceptualise the case of a single island
economy, borrowing and re-defining a term used in a more restricted context by Sir
George Quigley in his address to the CII in 1992 (Quigley, 1992) and elsewhere
(Quigley, 1993). For each scenario we try to explore the implications for a range of
important issues, such as public finance/expenditure, transitional aid, investment
and employment, and island synergies.
We conclude with a more speculative view on likely economic developments on this
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