urban transport network public transport network random walk model Holt-Winters’ exponential smoothing technique seasonal ARIMA model traffic flow - Dublin traffic forecasting
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
B. Ghosh, B. Basu and M. O'Mahony, Time-series modelling for forecasting vehicular traffic flow in Dublin: [in proceedings of the ] 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., January 9th-13th, 2005, pp[1-22]
The traffic flow at an arterial intersection in a congested urban transportation network in the city of Dublin
is modelled in this paper. Three different time-series models, viz. random walk model, Holt-Winters’ exponential
smoothing technique and seasonal ARIMA model are used for modeling of traffic flow in Dublin. Simulation and
short-term forecasting of univariate traffic flow data are done using these models. The data used for modeling are
obtained from loop-detectors at a certain junction in the city center of Dublin. Seasonal ARIMA and Holt-Winters’
exponential smoothing technique give highly competitive forecasts and match considerably well with the observed
traffic flow data during rush hours.
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