Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Urban transport system road transport system traffic volume traffic condition forecasting
Ghosh, B., Basu, B. and O'Mahony, M, Wavelet-Bayesian hierarchical stochastic model for short-term traffic flow at noncritical junctions, Procs of the 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C., January, 2008, CDROM
In ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) equipped urban transportation systems noncritical
junctions are often ignored in short-term traffic condition prediction algorithms as the
traffic data collection systems in these junctions are not adequate. The paper proposes a shortterm
traffic volume model based on a combination of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and
Bayesian hierarchical methodology (BHM) applicable to non-critical junctions lacking
continuous data collection systems. Unlike typical short-term traffic condition forecasting
algorithms, large traffic flow datasets including information on current traffic scenarios are not
required for the proposed model. In this model, a non-functional representation of the daily
‘trend’ of urban traffic flow observations is achieved using DWT while the fluctuations in the
traffic flow in addition to the variations represented by the ‘trend’ are modeled as a stochastic
process using BHM. The time-varying variance (within day) of these fluctuations over the
‘trend’ in urban traffic flow observations at a signalized intersection has been estimated in the
model. The effectiveness and the accuracy of the model have been compared with a
conventional short-term traffic flow forecasting time-series model based on Holt-Winters
Exponential Smoothing (HWES) technique. Both the models are applied at two signalized
intersections at the city-centre of Dublin and their performances have been discussed.
Please note: There is a known bug in some browsers that causes an
error when a user tries to view large pdf file within the browser window.
If you receive the message "The file is damaged and could not be
repaired", please try one of the solutions linked below based on the
browser you are using.
Items in TARA are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.