Public transport - Ireland assault Bus routes - Dublin Crime risk - Dublin
French, C. and O'Mahony, M., Measuring risk of attack on bus networks, Procs of 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C., January, CDROM, 2008, CDROM-
Public transport systems are at risk from attacks as they are open, dynamic systems
carrying large numbers of people. Although attacks have been carried out on public
transport since the 1920’s, the nature of attacks has changed in recent years and the
objective of many terrorist attacks is to cause large number of casualties and create
major disruptions on the network. The research examines the risk from such an attack
on the bus network in Dublin.
As part of the research, a framework was developed which can be used to
calculate risk using a number of factors which were chosen to take into account the
attractiveness of the target, the overall threat and the level of disruption caused. The
factors were grouped into static factors (factors that remain largely unchanged) and
dynamic factors (factors which change due to further factors such as time). These
factors were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Eleven bus
routes throughout Dublin were chosen and were analysed under five different
The research concluded that rush hour and when the buses are operating at
high load factors are particularly high risk situations but in off-peak hours the number
of possible targets on a route may still mean the risk is relatively high during those
times. Limited options are available to mitigate those risks although rerouting during
periods of medium to high alert offers some possibility of offsetting the risks of
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