Trinity College Dublin, Department of Computer Science
Carney, Michael; Cunningham, Pádraig. 'The Benefits of Using a Complete Probability Distribution when Decision Making: An Example in Anticoagulant Drug Therapy'. - Dublin, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Computer Science, TCD-CS-2005-58, 2005, pp22
Computer Science Technical Report TCD-CS-2005-58
In this paper we aim to show how probabilistic prediction of
a continuous variable could be more beneficial to a medical practitioner
than classification or numeric/point prediction of the same variable in
many scenarios. We introduce a probability density forecasting model
that produces accurate estimates and achieves statistically consistent
predicted distributions. An empirical evaluation of this approach on the
problem of warfarin dosage prediction is described and a comparison of
results obtained from our probabilistic models with a number of classification techniques on this problem is also shown.
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