http://hdl.handle.net/2262/9206 Tue, 21 May 2013 08:22:02 GMT 2013-05-21T08:22:02Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66026 Title: Credit access for small and medium firms: survey evidence for Ireland Author: Lawless, Martina; McCann, Fergal Abstract: The extension of credit to SMEs in Ireland has been identified as a necessary condition for economic recovery and job growth. The debate on whether the reduction in credit to this sector is caused by credit rationing by banks or a lack of credit demand on the part of SMEs has received much attention in media and policy circles. Owing to a lack of relevant available micro-data, research on this issue in Ireland has been sparse to date. The aim of this paper is to provide evidence using recently available firm-level data from the Central Statistics Office and the European Central Bank. Using the CSO data, we find a moderate decline in credit applications, coupled with a very large increase in credit rejection rates. Using firm-level production data, we find no evidence that the accepted firms have been pooled according to firm performance - more productive and fast-growing firms are as likely to be rejected as any other firm. Using the ECB data, we show that Irish firms are 15 to 18 percent more likely to be rejected for credit than a comparable Eurozone SME. We show also that Irish firms are less likely to have had decreased credit demand than other Eurozone SMEs in the 2009-10 period. Description: read before the Society, 27 October 2011 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66026 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66025 Title: The dynamics of Ireland’s net external position Author: Lane, Philip R. Abstract: Ireland’s net external liability position expanded in dramatic fashion during 2008-2010, despite relatively small net financial flows during this period. Understanding the source and persistence of this negative shock is critically important in assessing the future path for the Irish economy. However, data analysis is made difficult by the confounding impact of Ireland’s major role as an international financial centre, such that the “core” international balance sheet remains obscure. However, there is considerable indirect evidence to believe that a substantial component of this decline is genuine and relates to the internationally-leveraged structure of the financial portfolios of domestic Irish residents. Description: read before the Society, 24 November 2011 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66025 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66024 Title: Wage bill change in Ireland during recession - how have employers reacted to the downturn Author: Walsh, Kieran Abstract: The Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey (EHECS) captures information each quarter on total earnings, paid hours and level of employment from a large representative sample of employers. Responses received typically cover more than 70% of all employees in the state. The main purpose of the survey is to gauge trends in the average level of earnings and hours worked over time across all sectors of the economy. However the presence of the same employers in the sample over time creates a valuable opportunity to undertake longitudinal analysis of the manner in which employers change their wage bill over time. A previously published study from EHECS comparing quarter 3 2008 with quarter 3 2009 showed that for the matched employers, covering over half of all employees in the state, nearly two thirds of those employers had cut their wage bill by more than 2 percent over the year with the primary method of reduction being a reduction in numbers employed, followed by reductions in hours worked and reductions in hourly rates of pay. The level and type of change differed significantly across sectors. This paper will present an update of the findings from that publication for the following years (covering 2009 to 2011) to assess how the behaviour of employers changed as the economic downturn continued. Description: read before the Society, 9 February 2012 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66024 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66023 Title: The real value of house prices: what the cost of accommodation can tell policymakers Author: Lyons, Ronan C. Abstract: This paper explores the potential for the housing market to inform public policy in Ireland by developing a model of the determinants of the cost of accommodation. It does this by using a rich dataset of sales and lettings accommodation costs in Ireland over the period 2006-2010. A large empirical literature has grown up around a core concept that households pay to enjoy particular amenities. Five categories of amenity are included in the analysis: market depth, transport, human capital, social capital and environmental amenities. The typical amenity included is found to have a significant effect on accommodation costs, one that is larger in the sales segment than in the rental segment. Differences by amenity type highlight the importance of using “supply-side variation” to ensure the robustness of estimates of private benefit from public goods. Description: read before the Society, 15 March 2012 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66023 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66022 Title: Breaking the cycle of deprivation: an experimental evaluation of an early childhood intervention Author: Doyle, Orla Abstract: Deprivation early in life has multiple long term consequences for both the individual and society. An increasing body of evidence finds that targeted, early interventions aimed at at-risk children and their families can reduce socioeconomic inequalities in children’s skills and capabilities. This paper describes a randomised control trial (RCT) evaluation of a five-year preventative programme which aims to improve the school readiness skills of socioeconomically disadvantaged children. The Preparing for Life (PFL) programme is one of the first studies in Ireland to use random assignment to experimentally modify the environment of high risk families and track its impact over time. This paper describes the design and motivation for the study, the randomisation procedure adopted and the baseline data collected. Using Monte Carlo permutation testing, it finds that the randomisation procedure was successful as there are no systematic differences between the treatment and control groups at baseline. This indicates that future analysis of treatment effects over the course of the five year evaluation can be causally attributed to the programme and used to determine the impact of Preparing for Life on children’s school readiness skills. Description: Barrington Lecture read before the Society, 18 April 2012 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66022 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66021 Title: Housing equity withdrawal, property bubbles and consumption Author: Lydon, Reamonn; O'Hanlon, Niall Abstract: At the peak of the recent property boom, housing equity withdrawal, or “top-up" loans, accounted for around one-third of residential mortgage loans issued. This collateral-based lending was typically issued at a significant discount to other forms of personal lending, often at tracker rates. Following the collapse of the Irish housing market, the value of “top-up" loans issued in 2011 was down 96 percent from 2006 - the peak year for this form of lending. This paper draws out some of the trends in housing equity withdrawal over the last decade, both in terms of the extent of lending that occurred and the reasons for borrowers taking out such loans. From a domestic demand perspective, the concern would be the extent to which this form of borrowing fed into domestic consumption and the longer-terms implications for Irish economic growth. In this context we show that equity withdrawal trends are strongly positively correlated with a number of demand measures, mainly related to spending on durables. Description: read before the Society, 17 May 2012 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66021 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66020 Title: Trade, energy, and carbon dioxide: an analysis for the two economies of Ireland Author: Hyland, Marie; Jennings, Anne; Tol, Richard S. J. Abstract: In this paper we use a subsystem input-output decomposition analysis to examine the drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland. We use a bi-regional input-output analysis to look at how greenhouse gases in one region can be emitted as a result of demand in an exporting region. Looking at emissions generated throughout the island of Ireland, we find that emissions driven by demand in Northern Ireland are larger than those it generates, and vice-versa for the Republic of Ireland. We then use the input-output tables to simulate the effect of imposing a €15/tonne carbon tax in the Republic of Ireland. We find that this causes a decrease in final demand in the Republic of Ireland, and a decrease in output in both the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland; the decrease is greater in the Republic as the domestically produced share of inputs is much larger than the imported share in all sectors. Description: read before the Society, 31 May 2012 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/66020 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z