http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62355 2013-05-23T19:39:51Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62351 Title: Proceedings of the Statistical and Social Inquiry of Ireland One Hundred and Sixty-Fourth Session: 2010/2011 Author: SSISI Description: Proceedings of the Statistical and Social Inquiry of Ireland One Hundred and Sixty-Fourth Session: 2010/2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62350 Title: The demography of ageing and future policy impacts: a Northern Ireland perspective Author: McCrory, Gillian; O'Neill, Naomi; Ijpelaar, Jos; Marshall, David Abstract: The Northern Ireland population is ageing as a result of long-term falls in fertility rates and long-term improvements in mortality rates. This will create changes in the make-up of the Northern Ireland population. Most notably it is projected that the ageing of the Northern Ireland population over the next five decades will be the fastest in the United Kingdom. In the 1937 Census the older population (those aged 65 and over) was recorded at just under 116,000 (nine per cent of the population). This compares with 2009 with almost 255,000 older people (14 per cent of the population). Population ageing is likely to be faster over the next 30 years, with older people projected to reach half a million by 2041 (24 per cent of the population). Over the last century mortality rates have declined, people are therefore living longer and dying of different diseases today than in the past. The majority of those aged 65 and over were simply recorded as dying of old age in 1922, but by 2009, those aged 85 and over are more likely to die due to diseases of the circulatory system followed by diseases of the respiratory system. Calculations for life expectancy and limiting long term illness-free life expectancy show that on average males can expect to live 76.6 years with 80 per cent or 61.5 years limiting long term illness-free, while females can expect to live for 81.3 years with 77 per cent or 62.3 of those years limiting long term illness-free. Based on current trends after the age of 65 the Northern Ireland population is expected to spend around half of their remaining years in poor health. Description: read before the Society, 13 June 2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62349 Title: Constructing a national house price index for Ireland Author: O'Hanlon, Niall Abstract: The Central Statistics Office will publish the first results of its national House Price Index on May 13th 2011. This hedonic index is constructed using data on mortgage drawdowns by eight lending institutions under Section 13 of the Housing Act (2002). This paper describes how the development of the index has been largely driven by an impending European legislative requirement to produce indices of the costs of Owner Occupied Housing in the context of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. It discusses the limitations of data on Irish residential property transactions in the context of the national House Price Index and the proposed register of property transactions. Practical considerations covering the treatment of data, the design of the hedonic functions, the rolling year regression model employed and the weighting of sub indices to form a composite national index are described. The index results are examined in the context of some of the other measures of house prices in Ireland. Finally, the paper explores some future challenges for further development of the measurement of residential property prices in Ireland. Description: read before the Society, 19 May 2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62348 Title: Research and policy-making – strengthening the link Author: Hearne, Ed; Watt, Robert Abstract: This paper reviews the current relationship between research and evidence based policy-making in Ireland. It reviews the role of the State in its broadest sense and considers relevant research required to underpin policy development in that context. Noting the fact that research and analysis is but one input to an increasingly complex policy-making process, this paper focuses on how to improve the evidence base which is an input to policy formulation and how to bring research closer to the policy-making process. Description: read before the Society, 12 April 2011 as part of Symposium: Research Capacity and Policy Making 2010/2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62347 Title: Building research capacity in the social sciences – alternatives approaches Author: Ruane, Frances; Whelan, Brendan J. Abstract: In contrast to previous decades, the past decade has seen major investments by the Irish government in the national research capacity. As part of this investment, there has been a significant investment in the social sciences with the creation of major institutes in the universities and the rapid expansion of numbers of students supported in PhD programmes. This paper reviews the recent developments and contrasts them with the only other significant investment in the social sciences research made over the past half century, namely, through the creation of the Economic and Social Research Institute [ESRI]. Drawing on the different experiences, the paper suggests key issues that should be addressed in reviewing the development of these recent investments and on what might be appropriate future strategies. Description: read before the Society, 12 April 2011 as part of Symposium: Research Capacity and Policy Making 2010/2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62346 Title: Terrorism, tourism and FDI: Estimating a lower bound on the peace dividend in Northern Ireland Author: Muckley, Cal Abstract: In this article we estimate the economic cost of terrorism with regard to foreign direct investment and tourism in Northern Ireland during periods extending from 1970 through to 2007. Previous studies which have estimated the economic cost of terrorism internationally have neglected Northern Ireland. As a result, we focus exclusively on the economic cost of terrorism in Northern Ireland, which has been significant. In particular, our analyses indicate that for those initiatives reliant on foreign direct investment as well as for the tourism sector, a fatality as a result of terrorism imputes a minimum economic cost of £3.69 million pounds sterling. Taken together, our findings indicate an economic lower bound on the cost of terrorism in Northern Ireland. Description: read before the Society, 24 March 2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62345 Title: A study of the NUTS 2 administrative regions using Input-Output analysis Author: MacFeely, Steve; Moloney, Richard; Kenneally, Martin Abstract: In 1966 Roy Geary, Director of the ESRI, noted “the absence of any kind of import and export statistics for regions is a grave lacuna” and further noted that if regional analyses were to be developed then regional Input-Output (IO) must be put on the “regular statistical assembly line”. Over 40 years later, the lacuna lamented by Geary still exists and remains the most significant challenge to the construction of regional IO tables in Ireland. The continued paucity of sufficient regional data sufficient to compile regional Supply and Use (SUT) and IO tables has retarded the capacity to construct sound regional economic models and provide a robust evidence base with which to formulate and assess regional policy. This paper makes a first step towards addressing this gap by presenting the first set of fully comprehensive symmetric Supply and Use and domestic Input-Output tables compiled for the NUTS 2 regions in Ireland: The Border, Midlands and Western (or BMW) region and the Southern & Eastern (or SE) region. These tables are general purpose in nature and are fully consistent with the official national SUT and IO tables and the regional accounts. The tables are constructed using a survey based or bottomup approach rather than employing modelling techniques, yielding more robust and credible tables. In particular this approach should better take account of the magnitude and direction of inter-regional trade flows. Description: read before the Society, 3 March 2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62344 Title: The economic and fiscal contribution of US investment in Ireland Author: Walsh, Keith Abstract: Multinational companies from the United States of America are important sources of foreign investment in Ireland. The role of these companies in the Irish economy has been previously documented and is reviewed briefly. The main contribution of this paper is to present for the first time data on the fiscal impact of US companies in Ireland. The results show that US companies are significant sources of tax revenue. Over the last decade US companies have consistently paid around one third of the annual corporation tax revenue collected in Ireland. US companies also make large payments of value added tax, excise duty and income tax – the latter is due to the approximately one hundred thousand people employed in Ireland by US companies and indicates the substantial nature of US investment in this country. The sectoral composition of tax revenue from US companies and employment patterns over time are also examined. Description: read before the Society, 9 December 2010 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62343 Title: Predicting turning points in the rent cycle using the Natural Vacancy Rate – An applied study of the Dublin office market Author: McCartney, John Abstract: All property markets have a natural vacancy rate (NVR). Theory suggests that when the actual vacancy rate exceeds this NVR the market will be unbalanced. Then, rents will fall to restore equilibrium. Conversely, when vacancies are below the NVR, rents will rise. By establishing a ‘tipping point’ between positive and negative rental growth, the NVR is a useful tool for analysing market cycles. Standard econometric practice is to model the NVR as a constant. However, this paper findsthat there was a large structural shift in the natural vacancy rate for Dublin office space in the late 1990s. Allowing for this, two discrete NVRs are estimated for Dublin. For the 1978-1998 period, the NVR is calculated at 5.2%. This is broadly in line with rule-of-thumb estimates used by industry practitioners. However, the estimated NVR for the 1999-2009 period is 15.0 % - more than twice the 7% rate that is normally assumed. One interpretation is that Dublin’s office market is set to recover sooner than expected. Currently, the actual vacancy rate is just over 23%. Rents will only stop falling when this figure has been reduced into line with the NVR. For a given rate of net absorption, this will be achieved more quickly if the NVR is 15% than if it were 7%. Description: read before the Society, 2 November 2010 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62342 Title: From data to policy analysis: Tax-benefit modelling using SILC 2008 Author: Callan, Tim; Keane, Claire; Walsh, John R.; Lane, Marguerita Abstract: Tax-benefit models are used to explore alternative policy reforms, providing evidence which can guide policy choices. A database representing the national situation in terms of the income tax base and beneficiaries of social welfare schemes is critically important for such models. This paper describes how the database for SWITCH, the ESRI tax-benefit model, has been constructed from the CSO's 2008 Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC). The validation of the model database with respect to a range of external sources, and procedures used to adjust the database with respect to recent or anticipated changes are also discussed. Description: read before the Society, 30 September 2010 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z