http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62023 2013-05-26T09:27:12Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/61916 Title: Introduction to the Special Issue Author: Neary, J. Peter Abstract: Brendan Walsh retired in May 2005 from the Chair of Applied Economics and the National Economics of Ireland which he had held at University College Dublin since 1980. During that time his academic and popular writings confirmed his position as a scholar of international renown and the foremost commentator on the Irish economy. To mark his retirement and to celebrate his achievements, a conference was held at University College Dublin on October 7 2005, at which papers were presented by his former students and colleagues on a wide range of topics relating to the Irish and world economies. This issue of The Economic and Social Review contains the edited proceedings of the conference. Description: Macroeconomic Perspectives: Special Issue in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/61905 Title: Publications of Brendan M. Walsh Author: Walsh, Brendan M. Abstract: Publications of Brendan M. Walsh 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/61904 Title: An interview with Brendan Walsh Author: Neary, J. Peter Abstract: An interview with Brendan Walsh 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60894 Title: Mobility and gender at the top tail of the earnings distribution Author: Finnie, Ross; Irvine, Ian Abstract: The increasing share of the top fractile in the earnings distributions of several Anglo- Saxon heritage economies since the 1970s has been dramatic, and well documented. To date, however, little is known about the socio-economic origins and gender composition of the very top tail in the modern era. This paper takes a first step in filling some of the holes in our knowledge. We use a tax-filer data base for Canada for the period 1983-2003 that contains about eighty million observations. We show first that male earners in the top one thousandth of the distribution come very disproportionately from families with incomes in the top decile. In contrast, individuals in the remaining part of the top centile have more dispersed socio-economic origins. Second we show that female participation in the top fractiles has been very low, and that growth in participation has been slow yet definite. In contrast, female earnings in this echelon are almost on par with male earnings. Third, we show that there is an enormous asymmetry between the genders when it comes to spousal earnings: high-earning women have very high-earning spouses, but not vice versa. ‘Secondary males’ have earnings levels almost ten times as high as ‘secondary females’, suggesting that, even at this extremely elevated earnings level there is truth to the adage about who lies ‘behind’ successful individuals. Finally, it is illustrated that the earnings concentration that has characterised the last three decades did not change with the end of the ‘tech boom’ in the year 2000. Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60894 Title: Mobility and gender at the top tail of the earnings distribution Author: Finnie, Ross; Irvine, Ian Abstract: The increasing share of the top fractile in the earnings distributions of several Anglo- Saxon heritage economies since the 1970s has been dramatic, and well documented. To date, however, little is known about the socio-economic origins and gender composition of the very top tail in the modern era. This paper takes a first step in filling some of the holes in our knowledge. We use a tax-filer data base for Canada for the period 1983-2003 that contains about eighty million observations. We show first that male earners in the top one thousandth of the distribution come very disproportionately from families with incomes in the top decile. In contrast, individuals in the remaining part of the top centile have more dispersed socio-economic origins. Second we show that female participation in the top fractiles has been very low, and that growth in participation has been slow yet definite. In contrast, female earnings in this echelon are almost on par with male earnings. Third, we show that there is an enormous asymmetry between the genders when it comes to spousal earnings: high-earning women have very high-earning spouses, but not vice versa. ‘Secondary males’ have earnings levels almost ten times as high as ‘secondary females’, suggesting that, even at this extremely elevated earnings level there is truth to the adage about who lies ‘behind’ successful individuals. Finally, it is illustrated that the earnings concentration that has characterised the last three decades did not change with the end of the ‘tech boom’ in the year 2000. Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60125 Title: Macroeconomic performance and the design of public pension programmes Author: Disney, Richard Abstract: I examine the impact of the design of the Irish public pension programme on two dimensions of Ireland’s macroeconomic performance: employment and the average saving rate. Two facets of the programme might affect these outcomes: the lack of generosity of the programme relative to other OECD countries, and the high degree of redistribution embedded in the programme. These characteristics suggest that the programme has little ‘crowding out’ effect on saving rates. For employment rates, the two facets have contradictory effects that ultimately cancel out in their aggregate effect. These findings are illustrated by using a cross-country analysis to simulate a counterfactual where Ireland instead had a pension programme with the average characteristics of OECD countries (i.e., both more generous and less redistributive). Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60020 Title: Ireland in EMU: more shocks, less insulation? Author: Honohan, Patrick; Leddin, Anthony J. Abstract: Despite anchoring the Irish monetary system to a common zone-wide exchange rate and interest rate, EMU has triggered sizeable exchange rate and especially interest rate shocks to the Irish economy (albeit not appreciably greater than those experienced under previous exchange rate regimes). Interest rate movements have deviated widely from what a standard Taylor monetary policy rule would have counselled – though here again the deviations have been no worse in this regard than those of the previous regime. The most important shock has been associated with the large and sustained initial fall in nominal interest rates as EMU began. Through mechanisms which we formally model, the interest rate fall has had a lasting effect on property prices, construction activity and the capacity of the labour market to absorb sizeable net immigration, despite a sharp deterioration in wage competitiveness since 2002. As the long drawn-out impact of this shock subsides, the failure of the wage-bargaining system promptly to claw back the loss of competitiveness resulting from exogenous exchange rate movements is increasingly likely to show up in weaker aggregate employment performance. Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60008 Title: A theoretical growth model for Ireland Author: Barry, Frank; Devereux, Michael B. Abstract: Ireland is distinguished by the high degree of openness of its labour market and the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economy. We develop a neo-classical growth model to explore the consequence of these characteristics for the response of an economy to the kinds of shocks that are widely recognised to have been of importance in driving the Irish boom. Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/59870 Title: Measuring competitiveness Author: Neary, J. Peter Abstract: This paper reviews alternative approaches to measuring an economy’s cost competitiveness and proposes some new measures inspired by the economic theory of index numbers. The indices provide a theoretical benchmark for estimated real effective exchange rates, but differ from standard measures in that they are based on marginal rather than average sectoral shares in GDP or employment. The use of the new indices is illustrated by some simple calculations which highlight the potential exposure of the Irish economy to fluctuations in the euro-sterling exchange rate. Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/59867 Title: Ireland’s great depression Author: Ahearne, Alan; Kydland, Finn; Wynne, Mark A. Abstract: We argue that Ireland experienced a great depression in the 1980s comparable in severity to the better known and more studied depression episodes of the interwar period. Using the business cycle accounting framework of Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2005), we examine the factors that led to the depression and the subsequent recovery in the 1990s. We calculate efficiency, labour, investment and government wedges and evaluate the contribution of each to the downturn and subsequent recovery. We find that the efficiency wedge on its own can account for a significant portion of the downturn, but predicts a stronger recovery in output than occurred. The labour wedge also helps account for what happened during the depression episode. We also find that the investment wedge played no role in the depression. Description: An earlier version was presented at the Conference on Macroeconomic Perspectives in Honour of Brendan M. Walsh, held at University College Dublin on 7 October, 2005 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z