http://hdl.handle.net/2262/1103 2013-05-23T04:01:23Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/41130 Title: Destinations of Irish Exports: A Gravity Model Approach Author: Lawless, Martina Abstract: This paper uses a gravity model approach in order to analyse the geographical patterns of Irish exports. The gravity model in international trade has been demonstrated to be an extremely robust empirical method. The gravity model is first applied to aggregate Irish exports from 1980 to 2007. Distance is found to have a strong negative effect on exports. On the other hand, exports are positively related to sharing a common language and when communications infrastructure is well developed. The gravity model is shown to fit the data extremely well. We then use firm-level data on indigenous Irish exporters to divide the effects of trade costs into how they influence the number of firms exporting to each market and the average exports per firm. Finally, the firm data is divided into four broad sectors to examine if there is any sectoral variation in the standard results. Description: Barrington Lecture 2010 (read before the Society, 15 October 2009) 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/41130 Title: Destinations of Irish Exports: A Gravity Model Approach Author: Lawless, Martina Abstract: This paper uses a gravity model approach in order to analyse the geographical patterns of Irish exports. The gravity model in international trade has been demonstrated to be an extremely robust empirical method. The gravity model is first applied to aggregate Irish exports from 1980 to 2007. Distance is found to have a strong negative effect on exports. On the other hand, exports are positively related to sharing a common language and when communications infrastructure is well developed. The gravity model is shown to fit the data extremely well. We then use firm-level data on indigenous Irish exporters to divide the effects of trade costs into how they influence the number of firms exporting to each market and the average exports per firm. Finally, the firm data is divided into four broad sectors to examine if there is any sectoral variation in the standard results. Description: Barrington Lecture 2010 (read before the Society, 15 October 2009) 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/36166 Title: Well-being under conditions of abundance: Ireland from 1990-2007 Author: Delaney, Liam Abstract: This paper examines the health and well-being of the Irish population in the late 20th century, the period popularly referred to as the Celtic Tiger. This period saw unprecedented increases in economic activity in Ireland. Using statistical data from administrative and survey sources, I examine whether this period of growth improved well-being and welfare in Ireland. The paper draws from theories of the development of societies such as those of Fogel and Easterlin, as well as theories from behavioural economics and econometric techniques to examine this question. In particular, I examine the extent to which Ireland fits into a pattern of declining correlation between GDP and well-being at later stages of development, a phenomenon known as the Easterlin Paradox. I also examine the extent to which individual well-being is predicted by income as compared to other aspects of welfare such as health and employment status. Description: Barrington Lecture read before the Society, September 13th, 2009 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/28013 Title: Wage inflation and structural unemployment in Ireland Author: Keeney, Mary J. Abstract: In this paper we represent structural unemployment by relating observed unemployment to wage inflation. An estimated series for the non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU) shows that the unemployment gap between observed unemployment and the structural rate provides a good reflection of prevailing aggregate demand conditions and indicates that our estimated NAWRU series is a good measure of the Irish structural unemployment situation. The estimated NAWRU was at a high level throughout the 1980s and declined over time such that any excess labour slack was dissipated by the mid-1990s. Between 1994 and 2001 we report that the observed unemployment rate was below our estimated NAWRU indicating that the substantial inflationary pressure on wages was justified for this period. Very recently, the gap between our estimate of the structural rate and observed rates of unemployment is not very substantial and reflects a healthier situation vis-à-vis wage inflationary pressures which are supported by inward migration and productivity increases becoming embedded in our economy. Description: Barrington Lecture 2007/08, read before the Society, 29 May 2008 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/23239 Title: Association rule analysis of CAO data Author: McNicholas, P. D. Abstract: Central Applications Office (CAO) application data is analysed using a data mining technique, association rule mining, to investigate relationships between course choices across applicants. The role of gender as a factor in course selection is examined as well as a larger question around the functionality of the application system – what attracts students to a course; is it a topic of interest or is it the perceived status of the course associated with high entry points? The expected gender imbalances in areas like primary teaching and engineering appear, along with some others. Association rules generated suggest that students select courses based primarily on topic but sometimes with geographical location in mind. No evidence is found to suggest that students are selecting courses based on points status. Further in-depth analysis was carried out on two subgroups of students – those who applied for at least one medicine course and those who applied for at least one law course. Once again, the resulting association rules give little or no evidence that applicants are selecting courses based on points status. Description: Barrington Lecture 2006/07, read before the Society, 30 November 2006 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/8800 Title: Ireland's recent productivity performance Author: O'Toole, Ronnie Abstract: This paper examines the reasons for the recent divergence in US and European productivity performance. The paper shows that the structure of European industry is ill suited to the challenge of innovation which has to be faced given the rapid development of ICT technology and the fact that the ability to grow economically by imitating US innovation becomes more limited as convergence to US levels of output is approached. Turning to Ireland, the paper will show that while Ireland’s productivity growth over the last decade has been impressive, we still compare unfavourably with Europe when adjustment is made for transfer pricing. Much of Ireland’s economic success has been through the employment of more resources, not their greatly improved utilisation. Further, the persistent problems of Irish per capita productivity stem from the well-known deficiencies of Irish public services, and the less appreciated failures of ICT-using services, particularly retail sales. Finally, the paper argues that Ireland exhibits greater cultural preference for (voluntary) leisure than our European neighbours. Description: Read before the Society, 29 March 2005 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/8598 Title: Profits and wages in Ireland, 1987-1996 Author: Lane, Philip R. Abstract: A striking feature of the Irish economic resurgence since 1987 has been a major factor income shift away from labour and towards capital. (The profit share has increased from 25.1 per cent in 1987 to 34.8 per cent in 1996.) In this paper, we examine the role of the national strategy of wage moderation in explaining this shift, consider its potential benefits and ask whether it is sustainable. We highlight the critical role of fiscal policy in minimising the trade-off between the returns to capital and labour. Finally, imminent membership of a European Monetary Union makes it all the more important not to overshoot the equilibrium rate of wage growth for the Irish economy. Description: Read before the Society, 7 May 1998 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/7854 Title: Economic development in Ireland Author: Oldham, C.H. Abstract: In laying before the members of this Society some considerations regarding the very wide subject of "Economic Development in Ireland," I have in view the situation created by the Agriculture and Technical Instruction (Ireland) Act, 1899, which comes into operation on April 1st, of the present year. The object of that Act is to stimulate economic development in Ireland. It creates a new Department of the Irish Government, which is to concern itself with two distinct purposes: to assist in developing—(1) the agriculture and fisheries, and certain, rural industries; (2) technical education applied to any form of local industry. On the one hand to enable the production of greater wealth from the lands and waters of Ireland; and, on the other hand, to improve the productive quality of Irish labour by technical education applicable to any of the industries or the circumstances of each district—these are the beneficent and truly national purposes of an Act of Parliament which makes an entirely new departure in the relations between the people and the Government of this country. Description: Read Wednesday, 14th March, 1900 1900-01-01T00:25:21Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/5957 Title: The fluctuating character of modern employment. Author: Oldham, C.H. Abstract: I could not but feel how much Political Economy is unfairly discredited by the fact that the authoritative text-books within the reach of the ordinary reader are quite out-of-date upon many modern problems of great urgency and interest. Rightly viewed, the discovery by later writers that doctrines of older authorities are untenable is encouraging evidence that an advance has been made in the direction of Truth. The optimistic, doctrinaire manner of the superior person who condescended to explain the Laws of Progress to former generations has been superseded by the earnest, student-like, rather pessimistic attitude of the modern inquirer who is conscious of the extreme complexity of his problems, and diffident in giving dogmatic assertions. Ihe fluctuating character of modern employment is one of the features of the industry of our time that may serve to illustrate this change of tone. Description: Read Tuesday, 28th January, 1896 1896-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/5713 Title: The development of local government in Ireland Author: Horgan, John J. Abstract: Although I am only a new recruit to the ranks of this Society I have noticed that your proceedings are, as a rule, more concerned with the first rather than the second object of your title. I propose this evening to make some attempt to redress the balance in a paper which deals with an important social problem without reference to statistics. It may, I think, be said without exaggeration that national government is, in the last analysis, based on a sound system of local government. In this field we in Ireland have, since the establishment of the Irish State, made several fruitful experiments, and further developments may be expected as we mature politically. I propose in this paper to discuss the scope and effect of these changes and their future development. Description: Read on Thursday, 1st March, 1945 1945-12-31T23:00:00Z