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dc.contributor.authorBLOOMFIELD, DAVID SHAUN
dc.contributor.authorHIGGINS, PAUL A
dc.contributor.authorMC ATEER, ROBERT THOMAS JAMES
dc.contributor.authorGALLAGHER, PETER THOMAS
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-22T12:50:41Z
dc.date.available2014-01-22T12:50:41Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.date.submitted2012en
dc.identifier.citationBloomfield, D. S., Higgins, P. A., McAteer, R. T. J., Gallagher, P. T., Towards Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, 2, 2012, L41en
dc.identifier.otherY
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/67857
dc.descriptionPUBLISHEDen
dc.description.abstractSolar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of pro- ducing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to deter- mine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 (?M1.0), and 0.46 (?C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 (?M1.0), and 0.41 (?C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex predic- tion systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.oupsen
dc.format.extentL41en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThe Astrophysical Journal Letters;
dc.relation.ispartofseries747;
dc.relation.ispartofseries2;
dc.rightsYen
dc.subjectsunspotsen
dc.subjectSun: flaresen
dc.subjectSun: activityen
dc.subjectMagnetic fieldsen
dc.titleTowards Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methodsen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.sponsorMarie Curieen
dc.type.supercollectionscholarly_publicationsen
dc.type.supercollectionrefereed_publicationsen
dc.identifier.peoplefinderurlhttp://people.tcd.ie/gallagpt
dc.identifier.peoplefinderurlhttp://people.tcd.ie/bloomfis
dc.identifier.peoplefinderurlhttp://people.tcd.ie/mcateert
dc.identifier.rssinternalid79581
dc.rights.ecaccessrightsOpenAccess
dc.contributor.sponsorGrantNumber237645en


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