http://hdl.handle.net/2262/156 Economics (Scholarly Publications) Sat, 18 May 2013 19:56:39 GMT 2013-05-18T19:56:39Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64198 Title: To Convergence and Beyond? Human Capital, Economic Adjustment and a Return to Growth Author: FITZGERALD, JOHN Abstract: This paper considers the impact on growth and convergence in the EU over the last 20 years of investment in human capital. It examines the current adjustment of a range of economies to the external imbalances at the beginning of the current crisis. Finally it considers how the adjustments under way will contribute to a return to long-term growth. Description: PUBLISHED Wed, 04 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64198 2012-01-04T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64196 Title: Simulating Demand for Electrical Vehicles using Revealed Preference Data Author: TOL, RICHARD S. J.; LYONS, SEÁN; DRISCOLL, ÁINE Abstract: We have modelled the market for new cars in Ireland with the aim of quantifying the values placed on a range of observable car characteristics. Mid-sized petrol cars with a manual transmission sell best. Price and perhaps fuel cost are negatively associated with sales, and acceleration and perhaps range are positively associated. Hybrid cars are popular. The values of car characteristics are then used to simulate the likely market shares of three new electrical vehicles. Electrical vehicles tend to be more expensive even after tax breaks and subsidies are applied, but we assume their market shares would benefit from an “environmental” premium similar to those of hybrid cars. The “environmental” premium and the level of subsidies would need to be raised to incredible levels to reach the government target of 10% market penetration of all-electric vehicles. Description: SUBMITTED Sun, 27 May 2012 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64196 2012-05-27T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64060 Title: A Framework for Pension Policy Analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a Dynamic Simulation Model Author: CALLAN, TIM; VAN DE VEN, JUSTIN; Keane, Claire Abstract: This paper describes a structural dynamic microsimulation model of the household that has been developed to explore behavioural responses to pensions policy counterfactuals in Ireland. The model is based upon the life-cycle theory of behaviour, which assumes that individuals make their decisions to maximise expected lifetime utility, subject to expectations that are consistent with the prevailing decision making environment. The model is calibrated to match Irish survey data. Description: PUBLISHED Sun, 14 Aug 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64060 2011-08-14T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64059 Title: Economic Regulation: Recentralisation of Power or Improved Quality of Regulation? Author: GORECKI, PAUL K. Abstract: The October 2009 Government Statement on Economic Regulation proposes a number of sensible reforms that are likely to improve regulatory performance in energy, airports, telecommunications, postal services and transport. However, the Government Statement also proposes to reduce the independence of regulators by holding them to account through a whole series of additional mechanisms, some of which are informal and lack transparency, while at the same time instructing regulators to take into account evolving/current – possible transient – priorities. There are good reasons for preserving and strengthening rather than undermining regulatory independence. For example, it facilitates investment in long-lived assets with a large element of sunk or irrecoverable investment, a common characteristic of network sectors. The Government Statement’s unexplained move to reduce regulators’ independence finds no support in either the government commissioned background report prepared by the Economic Intelligence Unit, Review of the Regulatory Environment in Ireland, or recent European Union legislation on energy and telecommunications regulation. Indeed, these sources are strongly in favour of regulatory independence. Two, not necessarily mutually exclusive explanations, for reducing regulatory independence are discussed: to remove an anomaly in the Irish political system; and, to assist in the delivery of social partnership. The paper concludes by arguing that some thought might be given to public consultation of the reforms in the Government Statement prior to further implementation. Description: PUBLISHED Tue, 12 Jul 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64059 2011-07-12T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64057 Title: How Impact Fees and Local Planning Regulation Can Influence Deployment of Telecoms Infrastructure Author: GORECKI, PAUL K.; LYONS, SEÁN; HENNESSY, HUGH Abstract: This paper examines how local government planning regulations and charges affect the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. We explore the economic rationale for local government regulation of such infrastructure, which we suggest should be based on managing negative externalities. Using data from Ireland, we find that the observed geographical pattern of impact fees is inconsistent with the economic rationale for them. A simple econometric model of the number of telecoms masts in each county also suggests that the level of impact fees is negatively associated with mast deployment. This paper also examines other regulatory factors that affect the provision of new infrastructure. We find wide regional variation in these regulations but are unable to quantify their impact on infrastructure provision. Such regulatory complexity places extra compliance burdens on private operators, which may in turn distort the level and regional pattern of network investment. We suggest further regional harmonisation of development policy towards telecoms infrastructure to avoid exacerbating regional disparities in rollout of services. Description: PUBLISHED Thu, 25 Aug 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64057 2011-08-25T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64027 Title: External adjustment and the global crisis Author: LANE, PHILIP RICHARD Abstract: The period preceding the global financial crisis was characterized by a substantial widening of current account imbalances across the world. Since the onset of the crisis, these imbalances have contracted to a significant extent. In this paper, we analyze the ongoing process of external adjustment in advanced economies and emerging markets. We find that countries whose pre-crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by standard economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance. We subsequently examine the contributions of real exchange rates, domestic demand and domestic output to the adjustment process (allowing for differences across exchange rate regimes) and find that external adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression, rather than expenditure switching. Finally, we show that changes in other investment flows were the main channel of financial account adjustment, with official external assistance and ECB liquidity cushioning the exit of private capital flows for some countries. Description: PUBLISHED Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64027 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63916 Title: Optimal Interconnection and Renewable Targets in North-West Europe Author: LYNCH, MUIREANN A.; O'MALLEY, MARK, J.; TOL, RICHARD, S. J. Abstract: We present a mixed-integer, linear programming model for determining optimal interconnection locations using a cost minimisation approach. Optimal interconnection and capacity investment decisions are determined under various targets for renewable penetration. The model is applied to a test system for eight countries in Northern Europe. It is found that considerations on the supply side dominate demand side considerations when determining optimal interconnection investment. Interconnection is found to be most valuable when targets for renewable electricity are set for the whole system, rather than for different regions within the system. Description: PUBLISHED Thu, 22 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63916 2011-12-22T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63915 Title: Trade, Energy, and Carbon Dioxide: An Analysis for the Two Economies of Ireland Author: HYLAND, MARIE; TOL, RICHARD Abstract: In this paper we use a subsystem input‐output decomposition analysis to examine the drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland. We use a bi‐regional input‐output analysis to look at how greenhouse gases in one region can be emitted as a result of demand in an exporting region. Looking at emissions generated throughout the island of Ireland, we find that emissions driven by demand in Northern Ireland are larger than those it generates, and vice‐versa for the Republic of Ireland. We then use the input‐output tables to simulate the effect of imposing a €15/tonne carbon tax in the Republic of Ireland. We find that this causes a decrease in final demand in the Republic of Ireland, and a decrease in output in both the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland; the decrease is greater in the Republic as the domestically produced share of inputs is much larger than the imported share in all sectors. Description: PUBLISHED Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63915 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63914 Title: Trends in Air Pollution in Ireland: A Decomposition Analysis Author: TOL, RICHARD S. J. Abstract: Trends in the emissions to air of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, and ammonia in Ireland are analysed with a logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition for the period of 1990-2009. Emissions fell for four of the five pollutants, with ammonia being stationary, despite rapid economic change. A fall in emissions per unit output was the main driver of this trend, except for ammonia where structural economic change was the main driver. Extrapolating these trends continue, Ireland will keep emissions below its National Emission Ceilings, except in the case of nitrogen oxides where the target will likely be met by 2015. Description: PUBLISHED Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63914 2012-02-13T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63908 Title: Distributional Impact of Tax, Welfare and Public Sector Pay Policies: 2009-2012 Author: CALLAN, TIM; KEANE, CLAIRE; SAVAGE, MICHAEL; WALSH, JOHN R Abstract: The banking and fiscal crises, coupled with the worldwide Great Recession, have led to major declines in Ireland’s national income.  In this article, we examine the direct impacts of changes in income‐related taxes and social welfare policies on disposable incomes across the income distribution and for different family types. We also examine the effects of changes in public sector pay. The size and shape of the impacts in Budget 2012 are compared with the cumulative impact of policy over the full period since the initial budgetary response to the emerging crisis in October 2008. We also draw on recent work on the distributional impact of austerity packages in other EU countries to see how Ireland’s policy impacts compare with countries including Greece, Spain and the UK. Description: PUBLISHED Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2262/63908 2012-02-24T00:00:00Z