http://hdl.handle.net/2262/4597 2013-05-25T07:48:53Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2898 Title: The dilemma of Irish economic development: perspectives on the evolution of Ireland's public finances and economy from the early-1960's to the mid 1980's Author: O'Gorman, Noel T.; Carroll, Thomas A. Abstract: In this paper we take a broad retrospective look at aspects of the evolution of the Irish public finances and the economy over the last 25 years or so. In particular, we attempt to rationalise that evolution in terms of the underlying dilemma of the Irish economy as set out by Dr Whitaker in his seminal paper entitled "Capital Formation, Saving and Economic Progress" to this Society on the 25th of May 1956 - what he termed the "Dilemma of poorer countries". "Less developed countries, being at the disadvantage of starting from a lower standard of living, find it more difficult to set aside even the same fraction of income for capital building as the more highly developed countries. Yet, unless they make more rapid strides in other means of raising output, it is precisely those countries which must set aside a relatively greater fraction if they are ever to catch up in living standards". This paper is essentially about the budget, meaning the financial activities of public authorities, at an aggregate level, in the macro-economic context. It does not set out to examine, except where this is unavoidable or necessary to set the scene, the detail of public expenditure or taxation which has been exhaustively examined in other fora and publications in recent years. Neither does it look at the specific policies which the budget plays a major part in implementing, but the reader will, we hope, be tempted to ask whether the overall thrust of budgetary policy in the period reviewed was compatible with the objectives which these 'micro' policies were seeking to achieve. The views expressed are, of course, personal views. Description: Read before the Society, 21 May 1987 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2900 Title: The links between statistics, research and policymaking Author: Blackwell, John Abstract: The recent Government paper on the Central Statistics Office and the accompanying report of the Statistical Council are to be welcomed. This is partly because their specific proposals would lead to a more efficient system of providing official statistics. Moreover, the very publication of these papers, together with the Statistical Users' Seminar of June 1984, have meant that the provision of statistics has come alive as a policy issue. One hopes that this symposium can give a further impetus to this policy debate. This Society is a particularly appropriate host for this set of contributions, as it is the only regular forum which brings together statisticians, social scientists and Government officials. For too long, the provision of statistics has been seen as either something which was of little importance or else the concern of a small group of "experts". It is tempting to decry such notions by assertion. There is, however, a danger that at a Society such as this, the importance of statistics will be taken as self-evident. This is understandable. After all, the national income accounts have been described as the staff of life for the macro-economist, and similar things could be said about the links which bind policy analysis and statistics provision in so many areas. At an even broader level, information has been described as the currency of democracy. But in the harsh world which we are facing, the importance of statistics will not be taken as axiomatic. This is especially the case in view of the many competing claims for public expenditure. Hence, this paper begins with the links between statistics provision, policy making and research. It goes on to point out a number of ways in which the provision of statistics falls short of potential. Some key constraints on the achievement of this potential are briefly enumerated. Finally, a number of matters which might usefully be considered by the new National Statistics Board are discussed. Description: Read before the Society, 7th November, 1985 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2899 Title: The views of the statistical council Author: Conniffe, Denis Abstract: I think I can assume that anyone attending this symposium is both interested in, and relatively well informed about, the institutional arrangements for the collection and publication of official statistics. I will presume that the broad outline of the Government Paper "A New Institutional Structure for the Central Statistics Office", which contains the "Report and Recommendations of the Statistical Council" as an Appendix, is already familiar to the attendance. So, in the next section I will only briefly summarise the main findings of the Council's report and the corresponding contents of the Government Paper. However, there are two other topics that I do want to find time for. The first relates to the general approach adopted by the Council in preparing its report. The second concerns the thinking behind some of the points in the Council's report, especially in regard to recommendations of the Council that did not find their way into the Government Paper proper or that are less emphasised in that Paper. Description: Read before the Society, 7 November 1985 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2901 Title: Some implications of recent proposals and recommendations particularly affecting the CSO Author: Linehan, T. P. Abstract: I congratulate the Officers of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society in responding so quickly to my suggestion to have this Symposium. It is timely to have discussion in the Society on the statistical component of information needs in this country. In particular, how these needs can best be identified and how structures and resources can best be developed to meet, efficiently, any needs not yet covered by the availability of existing statistics. Description: Read before the Society, 7th November, 1985 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2885 Title: Estimating the magnitude of tourism in the European Community: data deficiencies and some results Author: O'Hagan, John W.; Waldron, Patrick Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to provide estimates of the magnitude of the contribution of total tourism payments to overall economic activity and employment in each of the member states of the European Community (EC). The paper has two subsidiary objectives - to highlight the dearth of reliable financial data relating to the tourism sector and to outline some important economic effects of international tourism payments in the EC. The paper is based on part of a larger study prepared for the Commission of the European Communities (see O'Hagan, Scott and Waldron, 1986). The most complete data set relates to international tourism payments and, as such, it is in relation to this aspect of tourism that most analysis of data is possible. However, even these data can be very unreliable, especially when they refer to bilateral tourism flows. Nonetheless, even with the inadequate data base, it can be demonstrated that international tourism payments do have important economic effects in the EC. All of these issues are discussed in Section 2. The data on international tourism payments do not include payments to international carriers Information in relation to the latter, in fact, is available for only two member states. A similar dearth of information exists in relation to domestic tourism payments. Thus, to arrive at estimates of total tourism payments (international plus carrier plus domestic) methods for estimating international carrier payments and domestic tourism payments had to be developed. These methods, as well as the resulting estimates of the contribution of total tourism payments to overall economic activity, are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 attempts to ascertain the level of employment (direct and indirect) likely to be associated with this tourism activity. Once again, the estimates only indicate broad orders of magnitude, but given the available data they are probably the best that can be provided. Section 5 concludes the paper. The most comprehensive and useful definition of tourism is the following: i Tourism travel by a 'tourist', i e a person away from the usual place of residence ('home') for a holiday, business trip, family visit, conference or other meeting (scientific, diplomatic, religious, sporting, etc ), excludes travel regularly undertaken to places of work or education, e g daily commuters, comprises - international tourism, travel outside the country of residence for at least 24 hours, - national tourism travel within the country of residence (EUROSTAT 1980, p LVIII) Tourism payments, as understood in this paper, are all payments associated with tourism so defined. Tourism employment includes all direct and indirect employment associated with tourism so defined, but not induced employment. Description: Read before the Society, 26 March, 1987 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2884 Title: Agricultural volume index numbers and the choice of aggregation formula: an empirical investagation for the member states of the EC Author: Boyle, G. E. Abstract: Analysis of volume index numbers of agricultural outputs and inputs has occupied agricultural economists and others for generations. In recent years these indices have become key indicators in the context of the annual policy reviews associated with the CAP. Despite the centrality of these measures in the policy formulation process, the methods employed in their compilation are rarely subject to critique, at least beyond the portals of official statistical agencies. Yet the computational procedures adopted by the SOEC and the Member States in the construction of such indices are open to many theoretical objections. One of the primary criticisms and the subject of this paper is the theoretical deficiencies in the aggregation formulae used in the construction of the index numbers. More pertinent, however, in the author's judgement is the empirical relevance of the theoretical shortcomings. In other words, do the various possible aggregation procedures produce broadly similar findings? If the answer is in the affirmative then the cost of employing theoretically 'soft' methodologies is thereby diminished. For instance, one might be prepared to abide by a theoretically deficient aggregation formula, in the context of making inter-country comparisons, if the ranking of countries were unaffected. If the reverse is true, existing practices may be worse than useless to the extent that they lead to inappropriate policy decisions. In a policy context therefore, the importance of ascertaining the results of employing naive aggregation procedures, when more theoretically favoured approaches are available is manifest. Description: Read before the Society, 22 January, 1987 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2883 Title: The revealed comparative advantage of Irish exports of manufactures 1969-1982 Author: Thornhill, Donal J. Abstract: This paper outlines the results of an empirical study of the repealed comparative advantage of Irish exports of manufactures during the period 1969-1982. The concept of comparative advantage is central to the theory of international trade. This study involved the measurement of the evolution over time of the revealed comparative advantage of the different sub-sectors which constitute Irish manufacturing industry. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 outlines the theoretical background. Section 3 deals with the approaches used for the measurement of comparative advantage and for the classification of industrial sectors. An analysis of the pattern of revealed comparative advantage by industrial sector is described in Section 4. These results are evaluated within a theoretical framework in Section 5. Section 6 tentatively explores the implications of the conclusions drawn in the earlier sections for the discussion of industrial policy issues. Description: Read before the Society, 14 January 1988 - "This lecture is delivered under the auspices of the Barrington Trust (founded in 1986 by the bequest of John Barrington, Esq ) with the collaboration of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland ". In 1984 the Council of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland established a competition to select the author of an Annual Barrington Lecture to replace the former system of appointment of Barrington Lecturers who delivered lectures in the four provinces throughout the year. The competition will be held annually and is open to Irish graduates within 10 years of primary qualification to submit a paper on economic policy and analysis of current interest in Ireland. The 1987 prize-winning lecture is presented here. 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2882 Title: The privatisation of state assets and state commercial companies Author: McDowell, Moore Abstract: This paper is meant to offer an outline of some theoretical and empirical considerations affecting privatisation. The emphasis in on the implications of the economics of property rights for the implementation of economic policy. Its main conclusion is that privatisation is, for the most part an unnecessary exercise, and is really only justified in limited circumstances. Most of the advantages associated with privatisation are in fact due to commercialisation and liberalisation. In a competitive environment, the nett efficiency gain from privatisation is likely to be small if it exists at all. The paper outlines reasons for suspecting that some of the motives behind the drive towards privatisation are based on misunderstandings about its end results. "Popular Capitalism", or "solving the national debt problem" turn out to be doubtful starters. Part I contains some comments on the issues - the objectives of privatisation. Part II looks at the basis for the perceived "inefficiency' of public sector production. Part III surveys some empirical and theoretical evidence on the consequences of privatisation and liberalisation. Part IV attempts to draw some conclusions for Ireland. Description: Read before the Society, 3 December 1987 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2262/2881 Title: Exchange rate policy in a small open economy: an examination of Irish experience Author: Massey, Patrick Abstract: The paper looks at Irish exchange rate policy since 1979 when the Irish Pound joined the EMS. The paper argues that a fixed exchange rate link is the optimal approach for an economy such as Ireland. As the bulk of Irish foreign trade is with non EMS member countries some questions arise as to the appropriateness of the target chosen. There have been significant shifts in the pattern of trade and in the structure of Irish industry since EMS entry. It was not possible to establish that these were a direct consequence of the exchange rate policy pursued given the nature of the data available. It appears that EMS membership may not have been responsible for the drop in the inflation rate which has frequently been attributed to membership and was a primary consideration behind the decision to join. Despite its limitations it is not clear that a superior exchange rate target is available Description: Read before the Society, 29 October, 1987 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z