http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62035 2017-11-03T02:55:58Z 2017-11-03T02:55:58Z Byrne, Julie http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58756 2016-09-09T17:52:59Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Output collapse, growth and volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa: a regime-switching approach Byrne, Julie A Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities is applied to sub- Saharan African data to examine the link between output collapses and growth. In the model, the growth rate moves discretely between two regimes; one characterised by a stable positive average growth rate, and a collapse regime characterised by negative and volatile growth rate. The aim is to derive plausible estimates of the transition probabilities for the Markov chain component. These estimates are then included in a vector of time-varying country-specific variables for the Markov-switching estimation. The results show that the probability of an economy remaining in a stable growth regime increases with institutional quality, education, improving terms of trade and increased concentration on manufacturing industries. The analysis takes into account the fact that the dynamics of output following a large collapse differs significantly from the dynamics of output during more stable time periods by taking a non-linear approach. Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co. Cork, April 24-26, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Conniffe, Denis http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58724 2016-09-09T18:12:25Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

When do Probit residuals sum to zero? Conniffe, Denis Probit residuals need not sum to zero in general. However, if explanatory variables are qualitative the sum can be shown to be zero for many models. Indeed this remains true for binary dependent variable models other than Probit and Logit. Even if some explanatory variables are quantitative, residuals can sum to almost zero more often than might at first seem plausible. Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co Cork, April 24-26, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Duffy, David http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58720 2016-09-09T18:12:27Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Negative equity in the Irish housing market Duffy, David Having peaked in early 2007 Irish house prices have fallen steadily. Negative equity occurs if house price falls result in the house value being lower than the outstanding debt. Many in negative equity will be unaffected and will continue to pay their mortgage without difficulty. Negative equity can increase the probability of defaulting if it occurs at the same time as cashflow problems, possibly caused by illness or job loss. This paper estimates that 116,000 borrowers were in negative equity at the end of 2009, rising to 196,000 borrowers by end-2010. Borrowing at, or close to the price peak, high loan-to-value ratios, interest only mortgages and longer mortgage terms have contributed to higher numbers in negative equity. First-time buyers are more likely to be experiencing negative equity. The research shows that many of those who have mortgages are employed in sectors where employment prospects, to date, remain relatively robust. Policies that assist households overcome a loss in income may help lower the default rate. Policy paper

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Commins, Nicola Nolan, Anne http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58718 2016-09-09T18:12:24Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Car ownership and mode of transport to work in Ireland Commins, Nicola; Nolan, Anne Rapid economic and demographic change in Ireland over the last decade, with associated increases in car dependence and congestion, has focused policy on encouraging more sustainable forms of travel. In this context, knowledge of current travel patterns and their determinants is crucial. In this paper, we extend earlier Irish research to examine the joint decision of car ownership and mode of transport to work. We employ cross-section micro-data from the 2006 Census of Population to estimate discrete choice models of car ownership and commuting mode choice for four sub-samples of the Irish population, based on residential location. Empirical results suggest that travel and supply-side characteristics such as travel time, costs, work location and public transport availability, as well as demographic and socio-economic characteristics such as age and household composition have significant effects on these decisions. Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co. Cork, April 24-26, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z