http://hdl.handle.net/2262/62035 2013-05-12T21:15:05Z 2013-05-12T21:15:05Z Byrne, Julie http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58756 2011-08-17T13:25:32Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Output collapse, growth and volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa: a regime-switching approach Author: Byrne, Julie Abstract: A Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities is applied to sub- Saharan African data to examine the link between output collapses and growth. In the model, the growth rate moves discretely between two regimes; one characterised by a stable positive average growth rate, and a collapse regime characterised by negative and volatile growth rate. The aim is to derive plausible estimates of the transition probabilities for the Markov chain component. These estimates are then included in a vector of time-varying country-specific variables for the Markov-switching estimation. The results show that the probability of an economy remaining in a stable growth regime increases with institutional quality, education, improving terms of trade and increased concentration on manufacturing industries. The analysis takes into account the fact that the dynamics of output following a large collapse differs significantly from the dynamics of output during more stable time periods by taking a non-linear approach. Description: Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co. Cork, April 24-26, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Conniffe, Denis http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58724 2011-08-16T15:49:16Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: When do Probit residuals sum to zero? Author: Conniffe, Denis Abstract: Probit residuals need not sum to zero in general. However, if explanatory variables are qualitative the sum can be shown to be zero for many models. Indeed this remains true for binary dependent variable models other than Probit and Logit. Even if some explanatory variables are quantitative, residuals can sum to almost zero more often than might at first seem plausible. Description: Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co Cork, April 24-26, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Duffy, David http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58720 2011-08-16T15:37:12Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Negative equity in the Irish housing market Author: Duffy, David Abstract: Having peaked in early 2007 Irish house prices have fallen steadily. Negative equity occurs if house price falls result in the house value being lower than the outstanding debt. Many in negative equity will be unaffected and will continue to pay their mortgage without difficulty. Negative equity can increase the probability of defaulting if it occurs at the same time as cashflow problems, possibly caused by illness or job loss. This paper estimates that 116,000 borrowers were in negative equity at the end of 2009, rising to 196,000 borrowers by end-2010. Borrowing at, or close to the price peak, high loan-to-value ratios, interest only mortgages and longer mortgage terms have contributed to higher numbers in negative equity. First-time buyers are more likely to be experiencing negative equity. The research shows that many of those who have mortgages are employed in sectors where employment prospects, to date, remain relatively robust. Policies that assist households overcome a loss in income may help lower the default rate. Description: Policy paper

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Commins, Nicola Nolan, Anne http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58718 2011-08-16T15:21:55Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Car ownership and mode of transport to work in Ireland Author: Commins, Nicola; Nolan, Anne Abstract: Rapid economic and demographic change in Ireland over the last decade, with associated increases in car dependence and congestion, has focused policy on encouraging more sustainable forms of travel. In this context, knowledge of current travel patterns and their determinants is crucial. In this paper, we extend earlier Irish research to examine the joint decision of car ownership and mode of transport to work. We employ cross-section micro-data from the 2006 Census of Population to estimate discrete choice models of car ownership and commuting mode choice for four sub-samples of the Irish population, based on residential location. Empirical results suggest that travel and supply-side characteristics such as travel time, costs, work location and public transport availability, as well as demographic and socio-economic characteristics such as age and household composition have significant effects on these decisions. Description: Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co. Cork, April 24-26, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier Donni, Olivier Gbakou, Monnet http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58707 2011-08-16T13:43:29Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: The measurement of child costs: evidence from Ireland Author: Bargain, Olivier; Donni, Olivier; Gbakou, Monnet Abstract: We apply an extension of the Rothbarth approach to estimate the share of household resources accruing to children (i.e., the cost of children) in Ireland. The method also allows us to identify the economies of scale in the household and indifference scales in Lewbel (2003)’s sense. A practical aspect of the present approach is that it does not require price variation. The identification of the children’s share requires the observation of adult-specific goods as in the traditional Rothbarth method. We compare our findings to previous results for Ireland. Description: Paper delivered at the Twenty-Third Annual Conference of the Irish Economic Association, Blarney, Co. Cork, 2009

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Callan, Tim Keane, Claire Walsh, John R. http://hdl.handle.net/2262/58702 2011-08-16T09:43:52Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: What role for property taxes in Ireland? Author: Callan, Tim; Keane, Claire; Walsh, John R. Abstract: What role could a property tax play in broadening the Irish tax base? An annual tax on property has been recommended in a series of reports over the past 25 years, from the first Commission on Taxation (1985), to the recent second Commission on Taxation (2009) and OECD (2009). As yet, however, a property tax has not been implemented. One of the key objections raised is that a property tax would be “unfair”, in that it would not take account of ability to pay. In this paper we examine how a property tax could be designed to address this issue, drawing on the CSO’s EU SILC, which contains information on both incomes and housing values. We use an extended version of SWITCH, the ESRI tax-benefit model, to simulate the impact of alternative property taxes, and explore their revenue and distributional consequences in a static framework. This helps also to shed light on the geographic distribution of property tax revenues, an issue which came to prominence in the Residential Property Tax of the 1990s. The acronym stands for Simulating Welfare and Income Tax CHanges. Description: Policy paper

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z